Covid2019 impact on economy is impossible to predict

Pick up any Q4 (March ending) FY 20 results and you will surely see the following statement –

“The duration and severity of COVID-19 and the disruption caused to business environment cannot be reasonably estimated.”

Likewise, checkout interviews from any respected businessman or filings made by Companies on the stock changes. The theme is common –

“We are trying to start back. But there are too many constraints including social distancing norms, labor unavailability, supply chain constraints and varied ever changing regional policies. When and how we will reach back to normal is almost impossible to predict. We will keep you updated.”

Now these are the people who are on the ground and make up the economy who are very openly accepting that “WE DON’T KNOW”.

On the other hand you have armchair analysts, rating agencies, fund houses, advisors who “KNOW EVERYTHING” and are openly predicting GDP numbers for FY 21 !

Now that’s what one call the miracle of excel.

My blunt and simple suggestion would be to ignore all this nuisance, keep ear on the ground, listen carefully to the managements you follow, try to make sense out of that and design your own strategy.

All these talks of V shape, L shape, U shape are no more than personal opinions and are like shooting in the dark.

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About the author

Nitin Jain

A finance professional with around 20 years of investing experience in Indian markets both on buy and sell side, equity and debt, private and public with some of the best organizations globally including Goldman Sachs, ICICI Group, ICRA and others. He is a All India Silver Medalist CA by qualification.