May 24, 2023
- Nalanda is a believer in the story. Held 9.95% at March 2023 end.
- Cash balance of Rs 324 cr at March 2023 end, which is 25% of current market cap
- Consistent ROE generation of 17-18%
Not so good
- Historical growth trends and expected short term growth.
- Revenues in last 10 years grew by an average CAGR of 9%. 5 yrs is further lower at 6%
- FY 24 yearly revenues are targeted at Rs 500 cr i.e., a growth of around 10% over FY23.
- Historical profitability has been volatile due to competitive pressures. Operating margins have varied between 15-20% in last 6-7 yrs
- Management is expecting improvement in short term profitability My guess back to around 20% compared with 15% of FY 23 However, sustainability of same is a question mark
- In it’s Q4FY23 concall on May 10, 2023 management has guided for a significant uptick in profits for Q1 FY 24. Expectation is that PAT margin will increase by 300 bps from current 9.5% levels. Reason – stable marketing cost and uptick in revenues. Management has not guided for an exact number but it seems that Company may report around Rs 15-16 cr of PAT during Q1 FY24.
Given the overall dynamics, stock can be looked at for short term outperformance as the profits improve. Being a low volume stock, increase can be quick. However, not a long term structural play for me based on the current dynamics.