inves4 is now 30 months old. Time flies !
The only reason I had started it was to put my thoughts in writing so that I can bring more discipline into my own investing activities. Incidental objective was to open my thoughts for wider public scrutiny and help each other.
When you leave digital footprint of your thoughts – responsibility and accountability of what you are writing increases multifold.
inves4 now contains around 150 write-ups focused on the Indian economy, stock market trends, individual company analysis and important news/ announcements.
This time when I was choosing the topic for the new post, I thought why not to do an assessment of what has been written so far. It will serve two purposes –
- Help me improvise my future writing and investing endeavours; and
- Provide a summary view and easy reference links to the readers
So here we go –1. There is no competition or valuation benchmarks for an efficient execution.
My worst stock call – When I turned cautious on Dmart in December 2019 – the stock price then was Rs 1,900 and currently is Rs 4,355 i.e., an increase of 129%.
I have been a big fan of Dmart’s business model for last 6-7 years and continue to be so. I still can’t see a potent competitor to it’s execution.
Ironically though, I turned cautious on the Company two years back because of the increasing competition especially after Amazon’s investment into Future. Guess I overestimated Amazon’s commitment towards Future and underestimated Future’s misadventures.
Since then I have just not been able to pick it back as an investor due to it’s ever increasing valuations.Picking broader trends is important. However, more important is to know how to play them.
My regular readers will relate with this.
- My call on auto and real estate revival and hence Indian economy would be amongst the first ones (since April 2020). I infact had got ridiculed for it then.
- My calls on midcaps vs largecaps has been working reasonably well over last two and a half years.
However, my problem has been that I have not played them well.
Reason – my over cautiousness and baggage of past experiences with some of the leveraged Companies.
Increasingly I am realising two things –
- it’s important to gauge the underlying risk taking sentiments in the market and hence ‘adjusting’ your own risk exposure
- capital allocation is much more important than stock picking
Does that mean, one needs to change his strategy as per market conditions.
Broader answer is – Yes, if you want out performance.
The extent of change may vary from person to person depending upon his own risk aptitude.
Even veterans like Buffett or our own Rakesh Jhunjhunwala over the years have improvised their strategies based on the ever evolving market conditions.
My latest broader calls are on Pharma, Tobacco, Banks (PSU banks especially) and holding companies. I am trying to play them more consciously now.Investors in general behave similarly
Some of my most loved articles have been –
- Why stock prices decline when you buy and increase when you sell ?
- Stocks: when to sell?
- Why waiting for correction rarely works in the stock markets
All of these articles had one thing in common – common investor dilemmas.
Most investors behave and react similarly.
Anyone who has been able to manage these dilemmas better becomes Veteran !
If you are new to inves4, do also checkout some of the links in this article. You may conclude time well spent. If you are a regular, I am sure it would have helped refresh.
Please do share any related comments.
I shall continue writing and sharing personal observations, experiences and learnings. As always, the effort would always be to keep it simple, relevant and to the point.
I am also currently working on introducing something new on inves4. Underlying intention continues to be the same – how can investing be simplified further. Hopefully, should be able to open it for wider public soon.
Some other interesting articles you may want to read –